Possible scenario
Inflation Reaccelerates
18% Chance
Inflation could prove more persistent than Collins and other officials expect, especially if services prices or shelter inflation firm again. In that case, the Fed's year-end stance becomes more forceful, and markets reprice toward a higher terminal rate.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Copper Down
- Bitcoin Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.