Possible scenario
Inflation Cools Enough
25% Chance
A plausible alternative is that the next inflation reports soften enough to reduce pressure for multiple additional hikes. Collins' forecast still matters, but the FOMC shifts toward a more data-dependent posture as disinflation evidence improves.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +1.0%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.