Possible scenario
Gradual Hikes Delivered
45% Chance
The most likely path is that Collins' comments align with the broader Federal Reserve consensus for additional tightening before year-end. Inflation remains above the 2% target, but the Fed proceeds in 25-basis-point steps rather than shifting to a more abrupt stance.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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