Possible scenario
Property Transmission Improves
25% Chance
A stronger upside scenario is that mortgage subsidies and cheaper PSL funding work together to lift buyer confidence in large cities. This would create a more visible read-through to developers, banks, construction materials and industrial metals.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Copper Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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