Possible scenario
Debt Overhang Persists
20% Chance
In the downside case, the cut is viewed as another targeted liquidity tool that cannot offset weak household income expectations and developer distrust. Credit is available, but demand and risk appetite remain too poor for a sustained property-market recovery.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Copper Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials -1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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