Possible scenario
Regional Haze Worsens
25% Chance
Dry weather and peat fires keep smoke moving across Singapore and Malaysia, forcing more public-health measures and disrupting outdoor activity. This scenario is plausible because the timeline already shows cross-border haze and a sharp rise in respiratory illness.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.1%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.5%
- Healthcare +0.3%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.2%
- Finance -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.