Possible scenario
Budget Cuts Hold
20% Chance
The administration defends its fiscal cuts and relies on local governments, police enforcement and limited emergency funds rather than fully rebuilding prevention budgets. This keeps near-term fiscal credibility intact but leaves investors worried about recurring haze risk.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -1.0%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.3%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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