Possible scenario
Diplomatic Containment
40% Chance
Estonia warns Moscow but avoids an immediate nationwide border closure while EU and NATO channels press Russia to clarify the 5 km curfew. This is the most likely path because both Tallinn and NATO have incentives to avoid turning a coercive border measure into a direct confrontation.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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