Possible scenario
Border Closure
30% Chance
Tallinn closes some or all Russia-facing road crossings, citing immediate security risks and possible migrant instrumentalization. This would mirror Finland's 2023 border response and would be seen as a serious but still non-military escalation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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