Possible scenario
Managed UN Diplomacy
38% Chance
Pezeshkian's New York visit creates enough political cover for indirect U.S.-Iran engagement, likely through European or Omani intermediaries. The near-term outcome is limited and procedural rather than a comprehensive settlement, but markets read it as reducing immediate escalation risk.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.7%
- Consumer Services +1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.