Possible scenario
Downgrade Still Happens
18% Chance
MSCI concludes Indonesia's market concentration and investability problems remain too severe despite the latest cuts. A downgrade would trigger forced passive outflows from MSCI Emerging Markets-linked products and deepen the equity-market confidence shock.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -1.4%
- Non-Energy Materials -1.0%
- Telecommunications -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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