Possible scenario
GOP Narrows Gap
30% Chance
The tour improves Republican enthusiasm and gives vulnerable GOP candidates more earned media in battleground states. Democrats still lead, but the race becomes more competitive as the party’s generic-ballot advantage compresses from double digits to high single digits.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
- Industrials -0.1%
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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