Possible scenario
Democratic Lead Holds
45% Chance
Trump’s 32-day tour generates intense media coverage but does not materially reverse voter dissatisfaction over tariffs, inflation, and interest rates. Democrats remain favored to gain the House and improve their Senate map as suburban and independent voters continue moving against the administration.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.4%
- Technology +0.2%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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