Possible scenario
Wider Shipping Disruption
23% Chance
Iran avoids a formal closure of Hormuz but uses drones, mines, cyberattacks, and militia threats to disrupt marine insurance and tanker scheduling. The result is a measurable supply shock through delays, rerouting, and self-sanctioning by shipowners.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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