Possible scenario
Limited Naval Containment
38% Chance
Washington, India, and Gulf states intensify naval escorts while avoiding strikes on Iranian territory. Iran continues signaling capability in the Strait of Hormuz and northern Indian Ocean, but neither side crosses into sustained open warfare.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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