Possible scenario
Diplomatic De-escalation
27% Chance
India's direct exposure after the sailor's death creates pressure for a face-saving maritime pause. Oman, Qatar, and possibly China press Tehran and Washington to separate oil-export enforcement from attacks on commercial shipping.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -2.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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