Possible scenario
U.S. Retaliation Expands
30% Chance
The White House authorizes a major retaliatory campaign despite the president's controversial framing. Iran responds asymmetrically through proxies and missile threats, raising the risk of a broader U.S.-Iran war.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +7.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-3.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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