Possible scenario
Institutional Rupture
20% Chance
Trump's comments turn the crisis inward, with senior officials, Congress, and the Pentagon forced to address presidential authority during an active attack on U.S. cities. The key market question becomes whether institutions quickly impose control or enter a visible standoff.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Bitcoin Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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