Possible scenario
Contained Homeland Crisis
35% Chance
Iranian attacks on Los Angeles and San Diego are treated as a limited retaliation rather than the opening of a sustained campaign. The Pentagon raises homeland defenses, Congress demands answers, and back-channel talks through Oman and Qatar intensify to prevent follow-on strikes.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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