Possible scenario
Royal-Guided Continuity
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is a managed transition in which the palace uses PAM's first-place finish to preserve the broad pro-establishment governing formula. PAM, the National Rally of Independents and Istiqlal keep policy broadly aligned on investment, reconstruction and subsidy management despite the legitimacy problem created by low turnout.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials +0.1%
- Industrials +0.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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