Possible scenario
Pro-Business Reform Push
20% Chance
PAM uses its first-place finish to claim a stronger mandate for infrastructure, decentralization and private investment. The palace supports faster delivery on earthquake reconstruction and 2030 World Cup preparations, producing a modestly constructive market reaction.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Copper Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.3%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.2%
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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