Possible scenario
Legitimacy Strain Deepens
25% Chance
The low participation rate becomes the central political fact of the election, giving opposition parties, unions and local protest movements a stronger opening. The palace and new government can contain the challenge, but social spending, reconstruction delays and inflation make the first months politically brittle.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.6%
- Consumer Services -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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