Possible scenario
Expansion Proceeds Smoothly
45% Chance
Tesla's 300-plus Cybercab deployment runs without major public safety issues, and state-level approvals remain permissive. The most likely path is gradual geofence expansion in Austin, higher vehicle utilization, and continued investor focus on robotaxi optionality rather than near-term revenue.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.7%
- Technology +0.3%
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Tickers
- TSLA+6.1%
- UBER-1.9%
- LYFT-1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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