Possible scenario
Contained Network Disruption
45% Chance
Polish investigators confirm sabotage but the operational impact stays limited because Starlink traffic is rerouted through backup ground stations and terrestrial links. Warsaw increases site security without invoking a major NATO crisis mechanism.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.2%
- Telecommunications -0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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