Possible scenario
Probe Pressure Builds
38% Chance
The fourth allegation keeps the Collins contracting story alive and makes it harder for the campaign to treat the matter as a single disputed report. The most likely near-term path is more document requests, ethics complaints, and Maine press scrutiny, without an immediate criminal charge.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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