Possible scenario
Legal Exposure Expands
20% Chance
The most serious path is that the allegations move beyond campaign messaging into renewed federal investigative activity. Prior reports that a Trump return halted an FBI bribery probe increase the chance of pressure on DOJ, inspectors general, or Congress to explain why the matter was paused.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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