Possible scenario
Truce Claim Unravels
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is that the claimed energy truce remains rhetorical and unverifiable. Moscow and Kyiv continue attacks on power, refining, and port infrastructure while Washington insists some informal restraint was discussed.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Utilities -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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