Scenario description
Assume Iran is formally admitted to the Mecca Alliance, or Iran signs an accession, protocol, or equivalent instrument making it a full party to the Saudi Arabia–Türkiye–Pakistan mutual-defense pact. The initiating event is an official announcement or signed document by Iran and the alliance members confirming full membership or full-party status. Reported pact features include mutual-defense treatment of attacks on members, logistical support for weapons, ammunition and equipment, a 10-year term, unanimous approval for new members, and intelligence sharing limited to the three current member states; Iran-specific force commitments, financing terms, sanctions treatment, implementation dates, exemptions and operational limits remain unavailable and should not be assumed.
Initial shock
- Geopolitical & conflict risksharp rise
- Defense procurement demand+5% demand
- Oil price+4%