Possible scenario
Limited Military Retaliation
26% Chance
The United States and Gulf partners choose a limited response against Iranian or Iranian-aligned coastal drone infrastructure. The central question becomes whether Tehran absorbs the strike or answers with attacks on bases, ports, or tankers.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.2%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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