Possible scenario
Escorts Contain Escalation
38% Chance
Washington, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE expand naval patrols and convoying through the Strait of Hormuz while avoiding strikes on Iranian territory. Iran keeps harassment below the threshold of a broader war, leaving markets to price a persistent but manageable oil-risk premium.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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