Possible scenario
Negotiated Containment
40% Chance
Beijing answers the reported EU 301-style trade tools with formal protests and consultations rather than immediate retaliation. Both sides have incentives to prevent another tariff spiral because EVs, medical devices, machinery and luxury goods remain deeply exposed to bilateral trade.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
- Healthcare +0.2%
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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