Possible scenario
EU Tools Advance
30% Chance
The European Commission moves from internal discussions to a formal process for China-focused trade instruments modeled on Section 301 logic. The first steps are likely to be investigations, evidence requests and consultations rather than immediate sweeping tariffs.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.1%
- Industrials -0.8%
- Healthcare -0.7%
- Technology -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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