Possible scenario
China Retaliates Selectively
20% Chance
China converts its warning into targeted retaliation against politically sensitive European exports. Beijing is more likely to choose narrow sectors with visible leverage than broad measures that would damage Chinese consumers and manufacturers.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Copper Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.4%
- Technology -0.4%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.4%
- Industrials -0.3%
- Non-Energy Materials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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