Possible scenario
Strikes Resume
20% Chance
A new Iranian attack or intelligence warning pushes Trump to reverse the pause despite oil-market concerns. The U.S. targets Iranian launch sites and command assets, creating a sharp but potentially contained geopolitical risk shock.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +4.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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