Possible scenario
Pause Holds
45% Chance
Trump keeps U.S. strike packages on hold after the oil price jump, while Oman and Qatar press Tehran to stop tanker attacks. Iran accepts a short tactical pause because the blockade pressure is already raising costs for buyers without inviting immediate U.S. retaliation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.8%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.8%
- Consumer Services +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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