Possible scenario
Containment Without Strikes
25% Chance
The administration avoids direct strikes but increases naval escorts, air-defense coverage, sanctions enforcement, and possible cyber operations against Iranian command networks. This contains escalation risk while preserving military pressure on Tehran.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.9%
- Energy +0.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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