Possible scenario
Transactional Bargain Emerges
20% Chance
Trump treats Putin's message as an opportunity to use Moscow as a pressure channel on Tehran. A narrow bargain forms around Gulf security, Iranian restraint, and calibrated U.S. sanctions enforcement, though Ukraine-related political resistance limits the scope.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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