Possible scenario
Russia Shields Iran
27% Chance
Putin uses the Trump contact to reinforce Tehran's narrative and warn against further U.S. coercion. Russia stops short of direct military intervention but gives Iran diplomatic cover, keeping energy and geopolitical risk elevated.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.3%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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