Possible scenario
Refinery Response Rebuilds
23% Chance
High prices incentivize refiners to maximize distillate output, delay nonessential maintenance, and redirect barrels into the US market. Supply tightness eases modestly, though inventory levels remain historically low.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
- Energy +0.1%
Tickers
- +1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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