Possible scenario
Negotiated Compliance
22% Chance
California and DOJ reach a practical compromise to avoid a prolonged emergency fight. The state agrees to review the 20,000-name list using DMV, immigration-status, and county-election records, while DOJ pauses its request for immediate court penalties.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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