Possible scenario
Court-Managed Review
38% Chance
The most likely path is a narrowed federal court process rather than an immediate political breakthrough. A U.S. district judge allows DOJ discovery or limited injunctive relief while California Secretary of State Shirley Weber continues to dispute the 48-hour deadline as impractical.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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