Possible scenario
U.S. Gulf Shield
27% Chance
Washington reinforces UAE and Gulf air defense rather than immediately striking Iran. The goal is to deter further attacks on Fujairah, Jebel Ali, and regional energy infrastructure while keeping escalation below direct U.S.-Iran combat.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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