Possible scenario
Israel-Iran Escalation
22% Chance
Israel treats attacks on UAE ports as part of Iran's broader campaign against Israeli-aligned Gulf partners. Direct Israeli action against Iranian military infrastructure raises the risk of follow-on missile fire at Gulf, Israeli, and energy targets.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +4.5%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.