Possible scenario
Contained Gulf Exchange
38% Chance
Iran frames the port attacks as a limited response and avoids a broader campaign against Emirati infrastructure. The UAE, Oman, and the United States push emergency deconfliction channels while air defenses remain on high alert.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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