Possible scenario
Gulf Shipping Disrupted
18% Chance
Iran shifts from direct military retaliation against U.S. targets to coercion in the Gulf, using seizures, naval harassment, mines, or missile threats. The main market channel is oil, shipping insurance, and inflation expectations.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +6.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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