Possible scenario
Damage Confirmed, Contained
42% Chance
U.S. and Israeli claims are broadly validated by satellite imagery, IAEA access, or signals intelligence, and Tehran avoids a large direct military response. Iran denounces the attack, accelerates dispersal of remaining nuclear material, and relies mainly on diplomacy and limited proxy pressure.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- Market volatility Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.4%
- Technology +0.7%
- Consumer Services
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.