Possible scenario
Settler Impunity Deepens
30% Chance
The incident reinforces perceptions that the army will not restrain violent settlers, encouraging more attacks on Palestinians and journalists in the West Bank. The most likely escalation remains localized, but the security environment deteriorates further.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.2%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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