Possible scenario
Institutional Containment
35% Chance
The Israeli military and police move to contain the incident through an inquiry, limited disciplinary steps, and assurances to foreign media. This is plausible because attacks on journalists create diplomatic costs, but the coalition has little incentive to confront the settler movement broadly.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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