Possible scenario
Accelerated German Aid
42% Chance
Germany turns Merz's Kyiv visit into a concrete military-support milestone, emphasizing air defense, drones, and protection of civilian infrastructure. This is the most likely path because Berlin has already increased Ukraine aid and the academy strike gives Merz a clear political rationale for faster delivery.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.7%
- Technology +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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