Possible scenario
Unions Join Movement
25% Chance
The student revolt broadens as labor unions frame the education unrest as part of wider opposition to the 2027 austerity budget. Transport, refinery, and public-sector stoppages would turn a student crisis into a more material French macro disruption.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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